ANALYSIS OF THE CREDIT SUISSE GLOBAL INVESTMENT YEARBOOK 2023. The vexing issue of long waves.
March 3, 2023 1 Comment
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March 3, 2023 1 Comment
THEPLANNINGMOTIVE.COM 
‘’ While Shaikh and I thought that this descending phase would end no later than in 2018, Tsoulfidis and Tsaliki estimate that the descending phase of the current cycle would last until 2025, and it seems that they are right. ’’
Good analysis of long waves. For my part I left a comment on the blog of M. Roberts and now I leave it a little more expanded:
‘’ I hope to convince him in his day, through a scientific publication in 3-4 years, a publication that now I cannot do only for professional work reasons, that the decrease in the cycle (with stagflation) will be up to 2,040-2,050. And that will be the time for the collapse of the capitalist model and its corresponding socialist revolution. Yes, the theory of the Kondratieff cycle that I handle is similar to that of E. mandel and others, with an exogenous cause (revolution) for the growing phase and an endogenous cause for the decreasing phase (decreasing gain rate, but only of the non-monopoly against which are the majority of the capitalist sector. And decreasing rate not derived from the increase in C.O.C. but derived from the increase in capital concentration ”
The oxygen cause of the cycle, a revolution, is radically vital to understand the magnitude of what we are analyzing. Briefly: a revolution is basically that the losing economic subjects of the model (now employees) assault the first company (now the states and before the kingdoms, etc.) to impose new conditions in the production and distribution of wealth. If the above is true, and is following K. Marx and Rosa Luxemburg, the revolutions and their cycles are simply the ‘engine of history’ ’. And of course, in those bullish and bassist cycles, everything moves in society: prices of actions, benefits, etc … and in political and cultural superstructures: reforms, counteracts, parties, etc.
The countries (and also the imperialist superpowers of the last centuries – England, the United States – grow to leaps through disruptive paradigm changes in their mode of production (taken from Thomas S. Khun and its study of how revolutions in the scientific knowledge). Paradigm clinics that only cause the revolutions.