US RETAIL SALES: WHEN THE INFLATING OF SALES PASSES OVER INTO FRAUD BUT IT NO LONGER MATTERS.

Marx observed that all crises are preceded by fraud. It seems that the venerable US Department of Commerce is not immune from this. In the end of course fraudulent official data is without consequence when reality imposes itself as it did this week when major retailers reported weaker than expected sales and income and the markets took fright.

Home Depot reported its sales which rose by under 2% in the U.S. This would have reduced the annual aggregate rise in revenue in the Table to 5.7%. It says a lot about the state of the housing market as well.

THE SUN, CROPS AND WAR (updated)

THE ABOVE ARTICLE HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA FROM THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

I have also added the following report below covering the current heatwave in the USA to supplement the data on India. Seems to be the weather this summer could be torrid and the politics even hotter.

ALL IT TOOK WAS THREE QUARTERS OF A PERCENT.

The stock and bond markets had a surreal week. Up on Wednesday following Powell’s remarks then crashing through to Friday as economic reality was restored. It is illustrative of the tug of war between the FED and the economy that frustrates it.

The Congressional Budget Office released government financial data for April a few days ago. Included is an item called “withholding tax” which is the tax employers pay to the IRS each month on behalf of their employed workers. April shows a significant fall from a cumulative 9% YoY increase (October to March) down to 8% (October to April) which is not consistent with rising employment as this would imply rising, not falling, withholding taxes. Now that patterns after COVID are normalizing I will be using this metric more often.

PRELIMINARY INVESTIGATION OF GERMAN PROFITABILITY 1991 – 2019.

This is the first of a two part investigation of the German economy. When the data becomes available the rate of profit will be extended to include 2022.