THE VIRUS THAT CHANGED THE WORLD ECONOMY.
February 28, 2020 6 Comments
2019 SALES VS PRODUCTION (Spreadsheet)
This article was delayed until the close of Wall Street on Friday.
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Sequoia Capital must have read this post “black swan pdf”. It is one of the most prominent “venture” capital firms — sent a “Black Swan” memo to the founders and CEOs of the startups it is funding “Coronavirus: The Black Swan of 2020.”
Thank you for another great post. Rich in information and insights. I’m reading it for the second time.
I believe it is a pandemic. I also find it rather interesting that the number of new cases around the world has exploded in one week as if all countries were waiting for the green light from the US to report actual number of cases. In the US it has exploded from around 6 to 538 at the moment in almost one week.
Black Monday!?
Indeed Cameron. European markets opened up to 8% down, oil fell up to 30%, S&P futures locked out at times at their limit of -5%, US 30 year bond below 1%. It makes for an interesting week.
Well Cameron you were right, Monday was black Monday. A fall of over 2000 in the Dow Jones accelerating into the close is most significant. Markets are now in a bear market. Can imagine the central banks and treasuries around the world getting out their testing kits. However in the end we must not forget that is the class struggle, not viruses, that gets rid of capitalism, and in the absence of class struggle, the system will survive the virus.
Brian, indeed it is the class struggle not the market or the virus.
It was a lucky guess. The market for a day like today had been brewing and was long overdue. I read that the fed resumed pumping money again to no avail. So yes they’re getting their testing kits out. The shock-and-awe of the half percent decline in fed rate did not work and pumping money may delay the inevitable a bit but not much.
As you said correctly in your last post this will reveal how broken the health care system in the US is. We have not seen anything yet. This is just a breeze not the storm that comes after.
I do appreciate your posts which analyze the concrete situation we are in today rather than just abstract and theoretical. You have a lot of great insights.