THEPLANNINGMOTIVE.COM

A WINTER OF DISCONTENT OR DISORGANIZATION. Perspectives for Britain.

The reader is asked to pay particular attention to the cumulative loss in GDP from the end of 2019 to 2023 which could exceed the losses experienced by the British economy during the Great Depression from 1929 to 1934.

US OFFICIAL ECONOMIC DATA BECOMES MORE REALISTIC ROCKING THE MARKETS.

Over the last two months the markets have rallied with relief over prices stabilizing. They have not bothered to look past the reasons why prices have stabilized and even if they had done so, they would have been mollified by inflated official data. This week it changed. The disparity between official data and surveys had become too glaring. The negative economic releases this week were a reality check for the markets. From now on the markets will be driven by data and by earnings and little else. In this sense we have entered the ultimate phase of the collapse of the markets, the phase where the outlook for the economy and earnings dominates the markets.

COMMUNIST CREATIVITY FREED FROM THE CONSTRAINTS OF CAPITAL.

This article was inspired by a growing number of films and series based on the birth of a number of key Apps which have played such a large role in shaping our modern culture. More precisely they expose the torturous geneses of these Apps – the stages of deception, betrayal and dehumanization – they had to pass through to gain the approval of capital.

CAPITALISM, THE STATE AND IMPERIALISM. Categorizing China.

US LONG TERM RATE OF PROFIT, AND THE FALL IN THE QUARTERLY RATE UP TO Q3 2022.

GLOBAL PRODUCTION & EXPORTS UP TO SEPTEMBER 2022. Reviewing the latest edition of the CPB Global Monitor as well as recent data on the world economy.

Please Note: Michael Roberts has responded to the criticism of him over his China position in this article. “On China, it is not correct to say that I think China has ‘socialist characteristics’.  Or at least I would not put it that way.  For me, China is not a capitalist economy (yet) but is a transitional economy like the Soviet Union was or Cuba is.  But it is ‘trapped’ like they were (are) within the confines of imperialism globally and the lack of workers democracy domestically.  It is not socialist but also not capitalist.  Nothing is black and white.” My short reply was that this was to confuse the political superstructure with the economy which is market led and driven. Clearly this is one of the essential debates of our time, and I would suggest a possible Zoom meeting to thrash out the differences.

THE AUTUMN STATEMENT (or Harmageddon). FROM PROFIT GOUGING TO INTEREST RATE GOUGING.

WHY MARXISTS CANNOT IGNORE CIRCULATING CAPITAL!

This posting is a courtesy to those commenting on turnover and circulating capital in a recent post on Michael Roberts blog.

On the spreadsheet, which is vast, all calculations for the graphs are coloured. to help the reader navigate it.

Addendum. In my haste to post this article I forgot an important point which I have described before and verified with data. The rate of return for low composition industries (so called labour intensive) tends to be higher than the rate for high composition industries (so called capital intensive). This differential has been used to confirm the assumption that the rise in the composition of capital will tend to depress the rate because of the weight of fixed capital. Not so. The ratio of circulating capital to fixed capital tends to be higher in low composition industries and lower in high composition industries. So, when we add back circulating capital it tends to lower the rate of profit in low composition capitals compared to high ones, and to elevate the rate in high composition capitals compared to low ones. Therefore, this contrasting effect tends to align the actual rate of profit between low and high composition industries confirming Marx’s observation of the equalization of the rate of profit. Until the advent of circulating capital, it was held that profit rates diverged not converged. Yet one more reason to stick to the rate of profit based on fixed and circulating capital.

OBSERVATIONS OF CARCHEDI & ROBERTS’ PRESENTATION ON INFLATION GIVEN AT THE RECENT HISTORICAL MATERIALISM CONFERENCE.

The purpose of this post is to ensure our understanding of Marxist categories remains precise and that all our investigations are rigorous.

Addendum. A quick point on private and social labour. The conversion of value into revenue via the monetary exchange, converts privately produced labour into social labour in the form of these revenues, which in turn can be used in exchange against any other commodity. Therefore, when value is exchanged for revenue via the medium of money, a quantum of social labour is extinguished on the buying side, while new revenue is created (new social labour) on the selling side, meaning that there is no loss or gain of social value or revenue should the exchange be equal.

YES, THERE IS A GLOBAL SLUMP AND YES IT BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER.

I expected the slump to occur around April. However, the global economy continued to limp along due to the backlog of unfulfilled orders until September when the state of the world economy abruptly changed as befits the move from quantity to quality. What is interesting is how this change of state in September caught numerous bosses of large corporations by surprise as evidenced by their financial reports covering the third quarter.