GLOBAL PRODUCTION & EXPORTS UP TO SEPTEMBER 2022. Reviewing the latest edition of the CPB Global Monitor as well as recent data on the world economy.

Please Note: Michael Roberts has responded to the criticism of him over his China position in this article. “On China, it is not correct to say that I think China has ‘socialist characteristics’.  Or at least I would not put it that way.  For me, China is not a capitalist economy (yet) but is a transitional economy like the Soviet Union was or Cuba is.  But it is ‘trapped’ like they were (are) within the confines of imperialism globally and the lack of workers democracy domestically.  It is not socialist but also not capitalist.  Nothing is black and white.” My short reply was that this was to confuse the political superstructure with the economy which is market led and driven. Clearly this is one of the essential debates of our time, and I would suggest a possible Zoom meeting to thrash out the differences.

THE AUTUMN STATEMENT (or Harmageddon). FROM PROFIT GOUGING TO INTEREST RATE GOUGING.

WHY MARXISTS CANNOT IGNORE CIRCULATING CAPITAL!

This posting is a courtesy to those commenting on turnover and circulating capital in a recent post on Michael Roberts blog.

On the spreadsheet, which is vast, all calculations for the graphs are coloured. to help the reader navigate it.

Addendum. In my haste to post this article I forgot an important point which I have described before and verified with data. The rate of return for low composition industries (so called labour intensive) tends to be higher than the rate for high composition industries (so called capital intensive). This differential has been used to confirm the assumption that the rise in the composition of capital will tend to depress the rate because of the weight of fixed capital. Not so. The ratio of circulating capital to fixed capital tends to be higher in low composition industries and lower in high composition industries. So, when we add back circulating capital it tends to lower the rate of profit in low composition capitals compared to high ones, and to elevate the rate in high composition capitals compared to low ones. Therefore, this contrasting effect tends to align the actual rate of profit between low and high composition industries confirming Marx’s observation of the equalization of the rate of profit. Until the advent of circulating capital, it was held that profit rates diverged not converged. Yet one more reason to stick to the rate of profit based on fixed and circulating capital.

OBSERVATIONS OF CARCHEDI & ROBERTS’ PRESENTATION ON INFLATION GIVEN AT THE RECENT HISTORICAL MATERIALISM CONFERENCE.

The purpose of this post is to ensure our understanding of Marxist categories remains precise and that all our investigations are rigorous.

Addendum. A quick point on private and social labour. The conversion of value into revenue via the monetary exchange, converts privately produced labour into social labour in the form of these revenues, which in turn can be used in exchange against any other commodity. Therefore, when value is exchanged for revenue via the medium of money, a quantum of social labour is extinguished on the buying side, while new revenue is created (new social labour) on the selling side, meaning that there is no loss or gain of social value or revenue should the exchange be equal.

YES, THERE IS A GLOBAL SLUMP AND YES IT BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER.

I expected the slump to occur around April. However, the global economy continued to limp along due to the backlog of unfulfilled orders until September when the state of the world economy abruptly changed as befits the move from quantity to quality. What is interesting is how this change of state in September caught numerous bosses of large corporations by surprise as evidenced by their financial reports covering the third quarter.

‘CARRY ON RAISING’, THE LAST OF THE ‘CARRY ON FILMS’ STARRING FED POWELL IN THE LEAD ROLE.

CHINA: ECONOMIC DATA RELEASED AFTER THE XX CONGRESS.

China: a Market Economy with Socialist Pretensions. Critiquing Xi’s Report to the XX Congress.

WHAT BANKING INCOME IN THE USA TELLS US ABOUT THE STATE OF THE US ECONOMY.

The US GDP Report was positive. But under the hood it was the weakest quarterly print this year. Additionally, the surprisingly low deflator raises questions as to whether the economy actually grew in real terms. The Implicit Price deflator YoY is 7%. But, over the same period the CPI was 8.32%, the PPI (Producer Price Index) was 12.8% and the IPI Import Price Index) was 7.5%, and when we weight them 68.2% 17.9% and 15.4% as a share of GDP, we arrive at a deflator of 9.12%. That almost wipes out the growth of 2.6% QoQ. It seems this was a quarter boosted by the export of guns and gas.

IN THE MARKETS WE TRUSST. A Brief Review of the UK Government’s U-turn in the face of the BOE’s intransigence.

The delusional Truss became the most short-lived Prime Minister in British history. Boris Johnson is trying to regain the Premiership. In the article I posed the question whether the populist wing of the Tory Party had been crushed or not? The answer is it has. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that Johnson will prevail especially now that the markets have stated they will not tolerate any further political instability.