A GRANULAR EXAMINATION OF US GDP AND EMPLOYMENT. Confirming the data is inflated.

PELOSI’S BUSINESS TRIP TO TAIWAN ANTAGONISES CHINA. (Together with latest Chinese economic data.)

HOW IMPUTATIONS AND CHAINED DOLLARS CAN DISTORT GDP DATA IN A PERIOD OF INFLATION. (Methodology)

AT LEAST FED POWELL HAS STOPPED SAYING THE ECONOMY IS ‘STRENGTHENING’.

PLEASE VIEW THE 2ND of AUGUST POSTING FOR A MORE THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF THE METHODOLOGY BEHIND GDP ESTIMATES AND THEIR SHORTCOMINGS.

GENERAL STRIKE NOW.

On Saturday, 30th of July, Dave Ward of the Communication Workers Union said that he had spoken with Mick Lynch of the Railway & Maritime Workers Union, Gary Smith of the GMB Union and Sharon Graham of Unite the Union “to consider calling for forms of collective action that every worker in the UK can participate in.” A small step towards what needs to be done. I am sure more calls will be made soon but a general strike still depends on pressure from below.

FED CHAIR POWELL SAYS THE US ECONOMY IS STRENGTHENING. LET’S PUT HIM TO THE TEST.

To elaborate on the employee withholding taxes used in the article which are a good guide to employment trends. All things being equal, a rise in withholding taxes paid on behalf of employees is associated with a rise in employment and a fall in withholding taxes with a fall in employment. The Federal Budget Year runs from October to September. Table 2 in the CBO Report provides cumulative data for receipts and expenditures. Thus my February figure takes the cumulative data for withholding taxes and divides it by 5 months to obtain the moving average while my June figure divides it by 9 months.  Accordingly, it shows the moving average is in significant decline, which given the inflation in wages and therefore withholding taxes, does not correspond to the rise in payroll employment as reported by the BLS. Finally, with total Federal Receipts on all income down by over 5% in real terms in June, the economy is clearly in recession because taxes don’t lie (excluding for the super-rich who don’t pay taxes anyway, so need not be included).

ECONOMIC STRESSES LEAD TO POLITICAL INSTABILITIES as Johnson discovered.

I should have added in some data on the USA in terms of attitudes to socialism. Today a majority of the under 34 are favourably disposed to socialism, or more accurately, a left reformist interpretation of socialism. This is not surprising given the widespread financial insecurity that permeates that country. Here is an interesting link to graphs which plots the trends in support by party affiliation between 2010 and 2021 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1078448/support-socialism-party-affiliation-us/

TALK GIVEN ON CHAPTER 10 OF VOLUME 3 OF DAS KAPITAL.

UNDER A BAKING SUN PROFIT TEARS THE WORLD APART.

The markets had there worst half year for decades. In fact the markets fell faster than during the first 6 months of the Dotcom crash. The first half drop was primarily caused by the fear of higher interest rates provoked by inflation. The second half drop will be caused by the fall in profit margins. The earlier than expected tapering of interest rates will not alter this. The world economy has effectively entered into recession. The only question is how deep,?

BRITISH WORKERS RISE UP, THE ECONOMY FALLS DOWN,AND THE PRIME MINISTER LANDS ON HIS ARSE.