IS THE US TONING DOWN ITS RHETORIC AGAINST CHINA? Is this a nod to reason or mere deception?
April 28, 2023 6 Comments
-
Follow
Following
Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
This WordPress.com site is dedicated to independent working class politics. Contact me at briangreen@theplanningmotive.com
April 28, 2023 6 Comments
THEPLANNINGMOTIVE.COM 
”At no time in history has the question been posed more acutely; preserve private property or abolish it? The answer to this question will determine whether this superheated planet witnesses war on an epic scale or witnesses an international revolution to preserve civilization and restore the planet.
It will be both events and in sequence: a world war and an international revolution. One after another. The first (world war) as it says “has already arrived” and is in a phase of economic warfare awaiting its probable expansion. This enlargement and the corresponding economic disaster for the working classes will be the trigger for the revolution. Revolutions do not prevent wars but are their effect. Remember: revolutions only happen at the worst times and in the worst places. BEFORE the revolution the economic collapse must take place. Where will the revolution be? The USA (it is not at its worst and is not expected to be even with war) is not the most likely candidate. The candidate, who has also recently bought many tickets with his invasion of Ukraine, is Russia as well as some other EU country (see later comment on the G7). Its previous economic decline before the war and its certain decline after it will make it easy for the Russian working classes to remember that they lived better with the USSR. When will the revolution happen? Between 2040 and 2050. There are several indicators in the theory of the revolutionary cycle for that date. I will only talk about two of them and only in title format: 1st indicator.- The cycles are symmetrical. The current cycle started in 1917, turning point in 1980, should end around 2040. 2nd indicator.- Decreasing rate of profit in G7 group countries. This rate of profit will be at zero around the year 2050 (according to data from Michael Roberts). Zero profit rate means many bankrupt small and medium-sized businesses and high unemployment. In other words, it will be a pre-revolutionary situation. Why do the G-7 countries matter to the cycle theory? Because I am talking about a European revolutionary cycle and not about the existing cycles in other parts of the world. The European countries of the G7 group are the countries closest to the core country (Russia) of the revolutionary cycle of 1917. These G7 countries of Europe were beneficiaries of the proximity to the revolutionary core country in the upward phase of the cycle (Golden Age period) and since the 1980s they have suffered a drop in growth due to the inflection of the cycle. The war only sharpens that fall.
A piece of news and facts about the supposed superiority of Russia in the war and about my point of view that Russia is the most probable candidate for a socialist revolution according to the theory of the revolutionary cycle. I do not follow the day of the war in Ukraine and I do not have any data about it, as you and others seem to have, but I was very surprised to see in your blog the data that Ukraine is losing to Russia in 6 to 1 in casualties. Today I saw a statement by Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner group and not suspected of infidelity to Putin, made to a pro-Putin Russian blogger published today, Saturday, April 30. In that published statement Yevgeny paints the Russian situation at the opposite end of an alleged Russian superiority. Yevgey talks about ”thousands of dead sent to Russia every day” ”ammunition only for a few days” ”Russian withdrawal from Bakhmut ” ”collapse of everything on the battlefront” ”situation on the brink of disaster”. That Russia is losing the war despite China’s economic support is consistent and coherent with the fact that it is at war with a group of countries, the bloc (USA-EU), with much greater economic capacity. It is the big fish that eat the little ones and not the other way around. In other words: to reach Socialism, the most scientific analysis and predictions possible must be made, despite the fact that these scientific predictions go against our previous feelings and emotions. https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-jefe-wagner-avisa-retirar-fuerzas-bajmut-gran-numero-bajas-falta-suministros-20230429153313.html
Antonio I reference 8 websites of which 2 are pro NATO to get my information. The better ones are Defence Politics Asia, Weeb Union, Theti Mapping and the Military Summary Channel. There coverage using Russian, Ukrainian and neutral sources tends to be accurate within 48 hours. On social media there are numerous Ukrainian sites providing false information. I suspect the one you have found is one of them. I just checked Bakhmut is about to fall as the Russians are storming the last Ukrainian stronghold in the town.
I praise you for accessing 8 different media outlets to collect and verify your Ukrainian war data. That is the right path to reach Socialism. For my part, as I told you, I do not follow the data and military or political events and I can only tell you that I did not pick up the statement by the Chief of Wagner directly in the Russian blog but in the main Spanish journalistic media that today echo of the news. Spanish media that are pro-NATO, of course. I am unable on my own to assess the degree of truth of the news. I only validate the possible withdrawal of Russia based on the theory of the cyclorevolutionary. But as you must know better than me, we should not make our theory based only on our previous theory but also on the actual data of the actual facts. Therefore, that Russia will sink and be a candidate for a socialist revolution is a prediction that is still pending many facts to prove it. Greetings
Do not forget that I will not make any more comments about the Chief of Wagner and his recent interview so negative about the strength of Putin’s army because I do not follow the day of these military issues, but in my daily review of The Gurdian newspaper I see a article that echoes today the commented interview of Yevgeny Prigozhin. And he talks about other news with other serious symptoms of weakness in Putin’s strength. My prediction, based on the economic superiority of the US-EU side (a side that I do not defend, as you well know, because of the socialist objective of “one class in one country”) that Russia will lose the war needs data that They prove it without a doubt, but the thesis that Russia will prevail… needs something else from them.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/02/putin-cancelling-public-celebrations-safety-fears-ukraine-war
Greetings
Antonio for the first time Russia used its heavy bomber fleet 36 hours ago conventionally and the effect on the Ukrainian rear was devastating. Far from having no shells Russian artillery inleashed barrage after barrage last night on the remaining Ukrainian citadel in Bakhmut. The western media have extended the fog of war to cover their countries. Within 30 days all will be clear and undeniable.