THE SUN, CROPS AND WAR (updated)
May 12, 2022 12 Comments
THE ABOVE ARTICLE HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA FROM THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
I have also added the following report below covering the current heatwave in the USA to supplement the data on India. Seems to be the weather this summer could be torrid and the politics even hotter.
THEPLANNINGMOTIVE.COM 
”Many reasons have been adduced why the US imperialists intensified their provocations at this fragile moment of humanity. The only viable response, the US recognizes that it is running out of time as China grows and it is this desperation that was the trigger.
What data do you have on this supposed growth of China as a rival to the US? I do not follow the macroeconomic news up to date, but I do have two relevant data that indicate that China is experiencing a slowdown in its growth that makes it AWAY from being an economic rival for the US. 1º.- Labor Productivity (and general) in decline. Yes, it is true that in the US and the West, productivity is falling but Chinese labor productivity is still 5 times less than American productivity. See some data in the link. 2º.- China is returning to Capitalism and this is having an effect, among other detrimental effects, on the decline in the growth of its GDP. An annual GDP that today is less than 5% per year, a decreasing annual GDP and far from the two-digit growth of its socialist stage. In other words, and in short, China with growing socialism until the 1980s/90s did approach the US, but capitalist China does not. https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/8353493/05/17/China-has-the-greatest-productivity-problem-in-the-world.html
Greetings,
This is the cut comment before:
In other words, and in short, China with growing socialism until the 1980s/90s did approach the US, but capitalist China does not.
Antonio, China’s economy is far larger than the USA’s when looking at the volume of production. Even using the dollar which underestimates the size of its manufacturing base it is still bigger than the combined dollar output of the USA, Japan and Germany combined. My favourite metric is this one; Chinese industry consumes half of all global industrial inputs including electronics.
In fact when comparing the USA to Japan at the time of Pearl Harbour the roles are reversed, now relatively it is the USA who has become Japan.
But some may say quality trump’s quantity. One F22 can shoot down lots of older or less advanced planes. But even here the gap is closing fast despite the tech embargoes. It is this that has the Pentagon rattled which is why the last Pentagon report to Congress concluded that Chinese advances were “eye-watering”.
Well, thank you for your response and I will not go into the discussion of the details of your metrics (China’s manufacturing base versus the US service sector base, for example) because, as I said, I do not professionally dedicate myself to the macro economy on a day-to-day basis. . However, in my point of view, for China to present itself as a 100% economic and technological rival of the US, it will have to improve its labor productivity quite a bit and that will not happen tomorrow and it may take another decade or two. And if China continues with its return to Capitalism (which will follow) it may take longer.
I will ask you one last question (key to socialism): assuming a supposed rise of China to the first economic power, what exactly would the world working class gain -and its expectation of socialist revolution- with such a rise? As far as I know, I wouldn’t gain anything. Absolutely nothing. China would just be the same capitalist dog but with a different collar. Note that this same dilemma and question is being raised right now in the NATO-Ukraine-Russia war: which is the worst capitalist dog of them all? But maybe you do see some benefit for the working classes.
I do not disagree with your sentiments. Like you I do not engage in capitalist beauty parades. One national capitalist class is just as bad as another. My concern is somewhat different. It is a concern of a pending world war in which the West would be the aggressor. Our tactics have to engage with that, which is why it is particularly important to win North American and European workers to the cause of revolution and that means exposing the intentions and machinations of the West. Here lies the difference, war is not in the interest of the Chinese capitalist class time is. Hope that clarifies things.
Services do not win wars especially financially leveraged health care, housing, and so on.
“One national capitalist class is just as bad as another.” Clearly you don’t believe that; you defend Iran’s petty bazaar-theocratic capitalists against Iraq’s state capitalists; you defend Russia’s capitalists against those of the US and Ukraine.
Since when do Marxists care which capitalists provoke which war? Did the Entente provoke the Central Powers? Without a doubt. Is that any reason to defend either capitalists?
As for China, the productivity of labor was, and remains, well below that of Russia, much less the advanced countries of the West; look at the percentage of the population engaged in agricultural production in the US vs. China; look at the labor productivity in agriculture of the two countries.
China can’t maintain, much less expand its productive base without wholesale dispossession of the agricultural population, and it does not have enough productivity to do that without triggering a gigantic social upheaval.
You still don’t get it. A triumphant and revived US imperialism bankrupting Russia and prising open the Chinese economy would increase the oppression of the American worker. Sartesian, your duty is to educate the American worker by exposing the intention of US imperialism not by saying a pox on all their houses. Only the combined forces of the European and American working class can prevent the coming war and as long as they believe Putin then Xi are the enemy this won’t happen. The enemy is within cannot be executed by your lumping them all together, especially not when you live in the aggressor country.
You sound like my sergeant in basic training, except he had real combat experience and you don’t so he knew what he was talking about and you don’t. The combined working class of Europe, the US, and Russia, and China only if they grasp that capitalism is the enemy in its Western garb, Eastern garb, etc. etc. That was proven by the Russian proletariat in WW1.
You said you don’t distinguish among capitalist classes, one’s as bad as the other. I pointed out that that’s not true. You then prove it by telling me my duty is to defend the capitalist class of Russia, the emerging capitalists of China, etc. etc.
So what programmatic features do you put forward for an end to the war? Victory to the no-longer -red Army?
So there is no mistake, here is what I offer, programmatically re this war:
No “self-determination” for breakaway territory.
No division of the Ukraine into separate states.
No support to the Zelensky government
For a unified workers’ socialist Ukraine
Withdrawal of Russian troops.
Disarming of all nationalist militias, in all regions
Immediate cancellation of World Bank programs and loans pending review by workers’ commissions
Immediate cancellation of all US/NATO weapons shipments and military assistance to the Ukraine
Immediate suspension of all EU funded projects, pending review by workers’ commissions
Europe out of NATO
You so far have offered– self-determination for the breakaway “republics” and “US out of Europe” giving the EU bourgeoisie a pass in this matter.
Would be very interested in your “positions” regarding the Malvinas War.
I have never faulted your programme. But you remind me of a chef writing up menu after menu in a restaurant without customers. The point is to get in the customers and that requires propaganda and propaganda requires exposing what is. Anyway. with reference to the Malvinas this recruiting sergeant for revolution called for the defeat of Britain, called on workers here no to help the war effort, called for the return of the Malvinas on the basis of the right of return and freedom of movement including for Britain’s resident there. what this sergeant located in an imperialist nation did not do was to lecture Argentinian workers on what they should do. What this sergeant neglected to do was to appeal to US workers to stop sabotaging the bomb fuses provided to the Argentinian air force which allowed the British Navy to prevail.
1.And your customers? Where are they? Monthly Review’s got a lot of customers with its line supporting Russia, but the food is horriblke
2. Re faulting programme– IIRC, and I’m sure I do, you are for breaking up Ukraine and call for “self-determination” of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics, no?
3. Who’s lecturing workers? I challenge you to find a word I’ve written on Ukraine, or anything else that amounts to a lecture.
What you do do is swallow propaganda about false flag operations and poor little Russian capitalism because you believe that US capitalism and its ruling class is indeed worse than other capitalisms, ignoring that all the pieces, big and little, rich and poor, north and south make up capitalism as a whole.
4.Let me ask you, pseudo sarge, before the Malvinas war, did you criticize the Argentina military junta and its death squads? If so, did you stop that criticism during the war? If so, why? If so, that’s exactly where your better/worse gets you.
Did you ever have any criticism of Allende? Did you ever advocate all power to the cordones in 73 despite Allende’s explicit opposition to the cordones’ expropriation of private industry? I’m sure you did. It’s your duty as a Marxist to make such criticism; to offer a path for the triumph of revolution anywhere and everywhere is it not?
Or were you silent when Allende appointed Pinochet as chief of the army; when he refused to arrest the members of the CD party which was explicitly calling for a military coup; when he refused to disperse the Congress that was plotting with the military?
Were you silent about the UP, the popular front, 1970-73?
5.It’s all very sweet to say, “Being in the big bad imperialist north, I would never tell anyone in the less bad south what to do” but that’s baloney, because that would require you to be silent about things and people and relations like Modi and the BJP, or Duterte (or Marcos Jr) in the Philippines. And in fact, it makes it impossible to organize and international association.
6. Short version: These issues are of such magnitude that to refrain from apprehending them as a totality makes your “alternatives” junk food
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