Populist leaders are like sparklers. They burn bright, furiously and then go out. The specter of Trump losing office fills fellow populist leaders around the world, like Bolsonaro and Modi, with dread. We are entering a new historical period, rich in promise and peril.


  1. Anti-Capital says:

    Great piece. Great spirit. And this: “In the name of humanity, we need to rebuild the international revolutionary movement in double quick time.” is the real content of all moments of capitalism.

  2. Cameron says:

    Agreed. Great piece. Read it twice. Likely will read it one more time. Thank you. Lots of analyses and predictions. I’d start with one of the predictions: They will be faced with mass unemployment, mass homelessness, mass bankruptcies, mass precariaty (typo).
    You must have heard about central bank digital currency (CBDC) projects. China, the US, and Japan are working on it and I appears that China will be the first to implement it. There is a lot of discussion suddenly about a Federal Reserve project to make direct payments to households during an economic crisis. In March, legislation was proposed to authorize the Fed to do this. A lump-sum payment in digital dollars to all Americans during a recession. While they extend and pretend they are aware of the gravity of the situation. I think the green new deal and digital dollar will be two mechanisms to combat mass unemployment and mass homelessness. Doubtful that they’ll succeed. COVID bill is just way too big. It’s more of a way for them to combat deflation. As you point out the world is restless. Demonstrations, conflicts, and wars are raging around the world. Financial crash of 2008 brought Arab Spring. But this monster is poised to bring World Spring.
    BTW, I appreciate you predicting without so much hedging as others do. Polls can be deceiving. President Slump supporters are sneaky and secretive so polls are not very reliable but I agree that this new wave of COVID is more aggressive than the last one causing sharp rise in fresh new cases. That may tip the balance in favor of the nonentity and we know It’ll definitely be contested. Precarity!

    • Hi Cameron, some of the questions you raise will be answered by my imminent post on Brexit and fiscal stresses around the world. I will provide links to the IMF Fiscal Monitor October 2020. Their outlook is not dissimilar to mine, except they do not factor for this winter which is why I project a US deficit between 140 and 150% while their outlook is in the mid 130%s.

      With regard to Trump, his election prospects has brightened since your media has not been able to bottle up the corruption surrounding him and his son, particularly in the Ukraine. Nevertheless, with COVID cases rising in line with my projections, breaching 70,000 last week, it is likely he is the loser as it is the Pandemic which is the make or break issue.

      Regarding the issue of enduring financial support. This is one of the themes I address in the new posting. At least here in the UK, free of the fog of November 3rd, the amount of support is being whittled away. The Chancellor drew attention to the size of the UK debt and the need for fiscal prudence in the future. I am sure the same debate will rock the Democratic Party after the election with the Biden center holding out the prospects of the need to pay for all this largesse.

      Another theme addressed will be the end of populism and what is to follow. This is an important discussion we all need to have because honing our tactics depends on it.

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