THEPLANNINGMOTIVE.COM

US CORPORATE PROFITS Q2 2022, DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET?!

THE TWO GLOBAL ECONOMIC LOCOMOTIVES RUN OUT OF PUFF.

THIS IS THE FIRST ARTICLE IN THE SERIES LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AT THE CHINESE ECONOMY.

LIZ TRUSS – FULE BRITANNIA. Probably the UK’s next Prime Minister.

HOW NOT TO APPROACH CHAPTER 9. Reviewing Christopher Arthur’s new book; The Transformation Procedure in “The Spectre of Capital – Idea and Reality”.

A GRANULAR EXAMINATION OF US GDP AND EMPLOYMENT. Confirming the data is inflated.

PELOSI’S BUSINESS TRIP TO TAIWAN ANTAGONISES CHINA. (Together with latest Chinese economic data.)

HOW IMPUTATIONS AND CHAINED DOLLARS CAN DISTORT GDP DATA IN A PERIOD OF INFLATION. (Methodology)

AT LEAST FED POWELL HAS STOPPED SAYING THE ECONOMY IS ‘STRENGTHENING’.

PLEASE VIEW THE 2ND of AUGUST POSTING FOR A MORE THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF THE METHODOLOGY BEHIND GDP ESTIMATES AND THEIR SHORTCOMINGS.

GENERAL STRIKE NOW.

On Saturday, 30th of July, Dave Ward of the Communication Workers Union said that he had spoken with Mick Lynch of the Railway & Maritime Workers Union, Gary Smith of the GMB Union and Sharon Graham of Unite the Union “to consider calling for forms of collective action that every worker in the UK can participate in.” A small step towards what needs to be done. I am sure more calls will be made soon but a general strike still depends on pressure from below.

FED CHAIR POWELL SAYS THE US ECONOMY IS STRENGTHENING. LET’S PUT HIM TO THE TEST.

To elaborate on the employee withholding taxes used in the article which are a good guide to employment trends. All things being equal, a rise in withholding taxes paid on behalf of employees is associated with a rise in employment and a fall in withholding taxes with a fall in employment. The Federal Budget Year runs from October to September. Table 2 in the CBO Report provides cumulative data for receipts and expenditures. Thus my February figure takes the cumulative data for withholding taxes and divides it by 5 months to obtain the moving average while my June figure divides it by 9 months.  Accordingly, it shows the moving average is in significant decline, which given the inflation in wages and therefore withholding taxes, does not correspond to the rise in payroll employment as reported by the BLS. Finally, with total Federal Receipts on all income down by over 5% in real terms in June, the economy is clearly in recession because taxes don’t lie (excluding for the super-rich who don’t pay taxes anyway, so need not be included).